Pope Francis, a holy man whose life and values can serve as a model for all, has become convinced that human activities involving fossil use are the cause of recent hurricanes.
On his way back to Rome from visiting Colombia, Pope Francis stated, “the recent spate of hurricanes should prompt people to understand that humanity will ‘go down’ if it does not address climate change….scientists have clearly said what path we have to follow.” The Pope was referring to a consensus by scientists that global warming is caused by human activity such as fossil fuels.”
There is no doubt that Pope Francis is well educated and has seen the devastating effects of poverty and how climate affects the lives of the most vulnerable members of society. But attributing climate change to economic prosperity that has resulted from the use of fossil fuels is misguided as well as myopic. How did the Pope reach the conclusions he now holds?
In 2015, Pope Francis convened a conference on Climate Change that was organized by Naomi Klein and Cardinal Peter Turkson. Ms. Klein is a social activist and critic of capitalism who promotes an overhaul of the world’s financial system to combat climate change. The Pope also chose German Potsdam Institute director Hans Joachim Schellnhuber as his lay advisor. Schellnhuber is one originator of the theory that the world will collapse if global temperatures rise more than 2 degrees Celsius.
With such people planning the conference and presenters such as Columbia University professor Jeffrey Sachs and Harvard University professor Naomi Oreskes, it is not surprising that Pope Francis has such a biased view of capitalism and climate science. While there is no dispute that human activities affect the climate system, that is far different than the belief of those who informed the Pope that climate change is predominately caused by human activities.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the asserted gold standard of those who support climate orthodoxy, had this to say about hurricanes in its last report, “Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century.”
The IPCC conclusion is supported by The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which attributes increased recent hurricane activity to “natural occurring cycles in tropical climate patterns near the equator”. Indeed, the trend in numbers of major hurricanes making landfall in the United States has been slightly downward for the past four decades.
As devastating as were Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, they were not among the most powerful that we have experienced. Since 1851, there have been 14 stronger hurricanes at landfall, and Irma ties with 10 others. Most of these hurricanes occurred before the increase in CO2 emissions following World War II. In 1900 and 1926, two hurricanes killed 8,000 and 4,000 people. The 1900 one destroyed Galveston. The most intense hurricane to hit the US coast was in 1935.
While Pope Francis is critical of capitalism, most people, including the late Catholic theologian Michael Novak, admit that capitalism combined with technology and abundant fossil fuels has produced tremendous prosperity, advances in knowledge, and longevity.
No one denies that in the process there has been environmental damage. But that prosperity has provided the means to correct and mitigate that damage. The parts of the globe that have high environmental degradation and high mortality rates are those experiencing “energy poverty.” Over 1 billion people are in energy poverty, with no electricity, no potable water, and no real standard of living.
The climate and economic advice being given to the Pope would not improve the plight of the energy poor but would make the rest of us worse off. Improving the quality of life of the energy poor should have a much higher priority than promoting climate orthodoxy.
Shakespeare wrote, “Modest doubt is called the beacon of the wise.” Pope Francis is wise and shows humility in many ways. He would do well to moderate his certainty with a modest dose of doubt and take a close look at a few facts about hurricanes and the environment.
William O'Keefe is a contributor to Economics21.
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