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Commentary By Haley Skinner

Keep Delivery Robots Coming

Economics, Economics Regulatory Policy, Employment

Although we have yet to see the flying cars of Back to the Future 2, we now have dozens of delivery robots, beginning with pilot programs in Washington, D.C. and the San Francisco Bay Area.  Similar exploratory programs have since expanded into several other cities across the globe, as well as the states of Virginia, Idaho, and now Wisconsin.

You may have seen some of these robots.  At two or three feet tall, they drive alone 99% of the time.  They navigate sidewalks and crosswalks with pedestrian traffic using cameras and sensors, while being monitored by a remote human controller in case of emergency.

This ingenuity has not been as well received in San Francisco as in Washington, D.C. or Hamburg, Germany, among others.  San Francisco Supervisor Norman Yee said in an interview, “Our streets and our sidewalks are made for people, not robots.”  He went on to rationalize his opposition by explaining that because the city prohibits sidewalk biking and skateboarding, it is consistent to also prohibit robots to maintain pedestrian safety.  

Yee furthered his qualms with robots by pointing out how the subsequent decrease in employment would hurt the local economy.  Supervisor Jane Kim, unlike Yee, recently suggested that rather than banning robots, the city should consider slowing the transition to automated delivery via a robot payroll tax or increased pay for jobs robots cannot do such as child care, so as to preserve employment.

But robots are not stealing our jobs.  They are paving the way for expansion into job markets we have yet to even imagine. The inventions of the Industrial Revolution such as James Watt’s steam engine and Lenoir’s internal combustion engine provided employment and created opportunities for ultimately much larger job markets.  

Data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development show that the 1970s employment rate grew by about 10 percentage points in the following 30 years as the Internet boomed.  There is no historical precedent or sound economic theory to support the notion that this burst of innovation will be unlike others and destroy economies.

It is true that some jobs will disappear.  But others will be created.  As robots displace some employees, demand for others will likely increase.  Investment in robotics will create jobs such as maintenance, supervision, or design of artificial intelligence, in addition to jobs in markets that do not exist yet.  App developers, social media managers, and drone operators are among careers that are prevalent today but would not have been dreamed of 25 years ago.  While emerging professions may require further education and training, it is essential to recognize that their presence will offset any temporary technical unemployment.

Not only is Supervisor Yee incorrect in his judgment of the economic risks of robotics, but he also overestimates the dangers.  He contends that the robots would pose a threat to the elderly, disabled, and young people who may not react quickly enough to escape the threatening machine, which moves at walking speed.  These robots are monitored by humans, in addition to their localization and mapping capabilities which allow them to construct and continuously update a map of their surroundings while simultaneously keeping track of their location.  

Thus, the robots’ awareness exceeds that of the average human, making them less threatening than a stroller, dog, or wheelchair.  In fact, Brad Templeton, a robotics expert at Starship Technologies, a leading delivery robotics company, explained that these robots make life safer in several respects.  “You can’t kill a pizza,” he said, illustrating that with no drivers involved, any incident would jeopardize one less human life.  However, Starship confidently insists that its robots have covered tens of thousands of pavement miles without a single incident.

Other benefits of these robots are their efficiency, and low cost.  Customers would benefit from increased convenience, as Starship promises goods to customers within 30 minutes, and the cost of delivery can be reduced by 10-15 times per shipment. They aspire to eventually knock the cost down to $1 per local delivery.  

As robots make delivery cheaper and more convenient for both supplier and consumer, businesses will have the incentive to expand.  Some jobs will disappear, but others will be created. The overall demand for employees will likely increase, opening the door to countless opportunities.

San Francisco is arguably our country’s most progressive city.  Banning this new technology would be hobbling the city and preventing the spread of cost-saving technology.

Haley Skinner is a contributor to Economics21.

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