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10-Year Breakeven Rate Reaches All-Time High, Bond Market Takes Notice

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10-Year Breakeven Rate Reaches All-Time High, Bond Market Takes Notice

November 24, 2021

Inflation doves often argue we needn't worry about inflation until the bond market starts sounding alarms. While it is certainly not on fire yet, the bond market does seem to be getting concerned. The 10-year breakeven rate, the difference between 10-year nominal and real bonds, reached an all-time high of 2.76% this month. Breakevens represent the market's expectation of future inflation. They include expected future inflation and a risk premium that reflects how worried the market is. 2.73% may not sound too troubling, but the increase suggests bond buyers are starting to take notice. 

Source: FRED

Allison Schrager is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Follow her on Twitter here.

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