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Human Capital | Workforce

Econometeorology
Matt McDonald | 2012-04-02

A new economic discipline seems to have emerged over the past several months: econometeorology, the explanation of the economy through weather patterns.

Don't Repeat Costly Policy Mistakes with Employer-Provided Pensions
Charles Blahous | 2012-02-13

The risk that the nation’s pension insurance system will become untenable continues to climb, threatening dire future choices between widespread worker benefit losses and a taxpayer-financed bailout. Last November it was revealed that the deficit in the PBGC pension insurance system (the shortfall of its assets relative to its projected liabilities) had reached $26 billion, and that the cost of “reasonably possible” terminations of insured pension plans had jumped to a sobering $250 billion. PBGC’s net deficit is now the highest in its history. As policy makers confront this situation, they must take care not to repeat past policy mistakes that are virtually certain to lead to future disaster.

JOBS DAY CHEAT SHEET: Where Are The Workers?
Matt McDonald | 2012-01-06

We have seen the glimpse of a jobs recovery over the past several weeks. Unemployment claims have continued to fall below the key 400,000 level, with the most recent 4-week rolling average at 373,000. Likewise, the ADP payroll estimate came in at a robust 325,000 new jobs for December.

"Supporting" 400,000 Education Jobs: An Unsupported Claim
Charles Blahous | 2011-10-13

The White House has circulated materials asserting that the President’s proposed American Jobs Act (AJA) would “support” nearly 400,000 education jobs. However, the validity of this claim rests on the definition of the word “support,” prompting a dissection of what exactly the Administration means by this terminology. The concept of “jobs created or saved” appeared deliberately designed to produce more favorable numbers than the neutral standard of “job creation” commonly applied throughout previous presidencies.

Jobs Act Might be Worse than Nothing
e21 Staff Editorial | 2011-09-13

Now that the President’s “jobs” speech has been digested by analysts and commentators, observers wonder whether Congress will be willing to pass legislation to aid the economy even if it provides the President with a substantive political victory. In a moment, the narrative has switched from whether the President’s plan will help the economy to whether the President’s political opponents would allow his plan to help the economy. This is an unfortunate twist considering that there is no reason to believe that a collection of measures to temporarily increase after-tax household and corporate income and transfer money to state and local governments would reliably boost growth. In many ways, the focus on political dynamics masks the discussion about economic effectiveness – for which there is little to no empirical basis.

Household Debt or Structural Change?
e21 Team | 2011-09-08

While employment has recovered to an extent in low debt counties; it has badly lagged in high household debt counties. For Konczal and many other researchers, this is evidence that the presence of high levels of debt (particularly mortgage debt) remains a causal factor preventing the recovery. Evidence of this sort is used as arguments for radical measures to reduce household debt — including mass refinancing or mortgage modifications. Because these treatments frequently involve large taxpayer losses, it’s worth thinking through what the demonstration means. While it’s true that household debt and employment are correlated; it’s not clear that lowering household debt would automatically raise employment.

Krueger and the Minimum Wage
e21 Team | 2011-08-31

Since President Obama has chosen Alan Krueger as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, attention is focusing on his academic career. Jonathan Chait for instance highlights one of his seminal papers written with David Card, which argued that hiking the minimum wage did not lower employment.

Focus on the Jobs
e21 Team | 2011-07-29

The US unemployment rate reached 9.2 per cent in June, up from 8.8 per cent in March of this year and double the 4.6 per cent rate in 2007 just before the recession began…To bring the unemployment rate down to 8 per cent by the time of the November 2012 election would require employment to rise by more than 200,000 jobs a month, more than four times the rate of job growth in the most recent two months.

The Gang of Six Framework: A Step Backward for Social Security Reform
Charles Blahous | 2011-07-21

This week, the Senate’s “Gang of Six” unveiled a deficit reduction framework that has been publicly described as generally building off the Simpson-Bowles fiscal commission recommendations, and as specifically pursuant to Social Security reform. A careful examination of the framework, however, reveals that it is a step back from bipartisan Social Security reform.

Revamping the Postal Service
e21 Team | 2011-06-28

GOP Presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty has raised the idea of privatizing the Postal Service. Though the postal service is far from being the largest government-handled service in the country, Pawlenty deserves credit for raising the issue. While his critics have countered that the agency receives no direct funding from the government, the postal service has been in the news for the ways in which its inefficiency and waste threaten taxpayers.


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